At present it is not clear that the needed repairs can be made, and one possibility is that the building itself will need to be replaced, most likely with a far taller (18 story) luxury condo building. The original 18 story building plans for this site had been rejected for a building more in keeping with the 1.5-2 story heights of nearby homes.
​
This larger Riverside (Riverview) West Cambridge area, that is part of the Marsh-Half Crown Neighborhood Conservation District, is made up of many one time  worker’s cottages, most ​of which have been converted to multi-million dollar single family homes, including many down-conversions from duplexes to single family homes, their two front doors attesting to their earlier history. This is a key symbol of the kinds of gentrification that CRA and Cambridge itself is too often associated with.  

​The Cambridge Redevelopment Authority is still an important force in this city.  The Cambridge Housing Authority is also important and has also been in the news because much needed repairs are not being completed, and City Council has been called on to undertake the multi-million dollar repairs instead. Read more HERE
​​

There is also the ongoing disconnect in housing re: the legacy of trickle down economic theory and the equally problematic "supply/demand" housing theory. We know that trickle down economic theory does not work (lower and middle income residents suffer most).  The same is  true for trickle down housing theory. In Cambridge, very few people move from their existing homes to take advantage newer ones that are even more expensive (leaving the present one at a lower price than market demands for someone seeking to move in with less financing means.

​Here and elsewhere, people tend to stay in the neighborhoods they first move to (work and family permitting), and if they do move, they are likely to seek top dollar housing return, if for no other reason than to help pay off new housing costs. When we throw in housing investors purchasing properties particularly in once lower income neighborhoods  simply to profit from the, trickle down theory in housing is equally if not even more problematic. The same is true for supply and demand housing theory in high demand high cost cities such as ours. Here, as in  other cities such as Vancouver,  there never can be enough homes to meet much less overcome demand leading to  housing costs magically falling to a price affordable to everyone. Each new and more expensive luxury housing property simply adds to the increased housing prices everyone must pay. ​

The Chinese example provides another angle on the difficult problems with government housing investments as China has seen recently with its recent housing "bubble" and "bust," with developers and communities alike suffering significantly with this crisis. ​

Cambridge resident and Urban Planner, Christopher Zegras has written an important letter to the Cambridge Planning Board about 9 serious problems in the new city up-zoning after their recent meeting.

These problems, he writes, include: 

1. Confounding multi-family with up to 6-stories, as of right. Why 6? Why not 12? Or 4?
2. “As of right,” out of context, will destroy already dense neighborhoods. 
3. Focus should be where infrastructure is available, such as the dense travel corridors, with mass transit (e.g., Mass Ave) and the empty and/or underutilized lands.
4. No parking requirements is absurd and planning as wishful thinking.
5. City should do detailed microsimulation modeling (based on sound microeconomic theory) to predict where supply will arise and what the implications will be, in multiple dimensions. The slide titled "What does this change do?" is not based on any clear analysis.
6. Many of the laudable objectives presented (e.g., bringing existing housing into code, etc.), can be done without this complete de-zoning of the city. 
7. What's the point of the review if there is no "risk"? 
8. The collection of "smaller residential projects", in aggregate, can have impacts just as large (if not larger) than a single large project.... 
9. Overall, it's very surprising that our city proposes basically throwing planning out the window: Eliminate any constraints and let the market decide!

Zegras also observes the following in this same letter:

Specifically, the city must do a lot more work before approving such drastic and unprecedented changes to our city’s development possibilities and trajectory.  Understandably, and obviously, affordable housing is a major concern in Cambridge (and greater Boston, and the state, and the nation, …). Cambridge can and should do it’s part, ideally in a coordinated fashion with the rest of Greater Boston (e.g., Brookline, Somerville, Milton, Belmont, etc.). That said, I also recognize the challenges (given our regional governance, or lack thereof) to such regional housing coordination. 
  
In the meantime, and at bare minimum, the city must start with a clear articulation of what it hopes to achieve by changing our zoning. As far as I can tell we have (or should have), at least, three basic “performance categories”: economic (employment, housing, commercial, office, etc.); infrastructure and services (roads, mobility, sanitation, electricity, education, etc.); environment (emissions, greenspaces, etc.). And, there is a clear distributional dimension within and across all of these (i.e., who “wins”, who “loses”). 
  
Any change in zoning should be articulated in direct reference to these multi-dimensional performance dimensions (or other ones that we, the city, choose). And, then, any proposals that are made should clearly and rigorously be assessed in terms of their predicted impacts on them (e.g., housing prices, parking demand, school slots, roadway congestion, transit ridership, vehicle emissions, retail profits, etc.). 
  
We have seen, from the Planning Board (at least last Tuesday), only one proposal: laissez faire (“as of right”). It’s an interesting proposal, but compared to what?  We deserve at least three scenarios, e.g.,: 

1. Do nothing (i.e., business as usual).
2. Laissez faire (basically, current proposal for 6 stories, ‘as of right’).
3. Corridor (e.g., Mass Ave) and or transit station-area densification.

These (and/or others) should then be evaluated through the same process/methods, and with the same evaluation rubric. In other words, come up with a reasonable evaluation framework (monetization of all benefits and costs; multicriteria analysis; whatever) and implement a transparent analytical approach (e.g., an integrated microsimulation model with a visualization component) so that we can all see what will likely happen over, say, the next 20 years under each scenario. That would be the basis for well-informed deliberation, publicly, among the alternatives so that we can make well-informed choices about the desired future of our city and how we might get there. 

Absent such an approach, it’s impossible for this resident of Cambridge to accept the proposal being made; at least based on what was presented at the PB meeting, which did not show any anticipated impacts in any relevant dimension of concern (not even, say, estimated impact on housing prices vis-à-vis business as usual, which is, presumably the main justification for the proposal). 
  
The above basic suggestion is ‘Planning 101’. Cambridge is a sophisticated city, with significant resources (financial, intellectual, social, etc.), it can and must do better.  These are important lessons that the City Council and the City itself should follow.
               *published with author's permission

Lessons from NINE (9) Urban Areas: the Importance of Using Data  “9 Lessons” is also the subject of an important article by Garima Jain & Jessica Espey in the journal Urban Sustainability (2002: 2, 7) titled “Lessons from nine urban areas using data to drive local sustainable development.” HERE
 
Among other things that they observe is the fact that “local-level indicators must be included in any future development framework, because local governments are the primary point of institutional contact for the majority of individuals.” The quote is from A Million Voices: The World We Want. UNDG Millennium Development Goals Task Force 1–172 (2013).
 
The authors of the report “…hypothesize that a data-based approach to the governance of local sustainable development, which aims to improve the quality and utility of local data on sustainable development outcomes and harness the opportunities afforded by the data revolution, offers a promise of more targeted, impactful action towards local sustainable development outcomes.” They note in turn that “…local governments continue to face several issues in taking advantage of this data revolution. Across both developing and developed countries, local governments lack the requisite financial resources to generate locally relevant data, build statistical systems, and foster capacity and skills. *see sources below.
.  
Jain and Espey note in this article that “Without necessary investments in local data systems, local governments will struggle to monitor progress on urban SDG targets and broader local sustainable development objectives.”
 
Cambridge has been a key beneficiary of the drive to create critical data and make these data available. We are fortunate here to have this data available to us on line in a readily accessible way. We also now have new technologies – AI, ChatGPT and others – that enable us to mine and analyze this data. 
Sources:
Espey, J., Mesa, N., Ruckstuhl, S. & Prakash, M. One NYC and the SDGs: A City Strategy with Global Relevance. in Smarter New York City (ed. D’Almeida, A.). 35–58 (Columbia University Press, 2018).
 
Simon, D. et al. Developing and testing the Urban Sustainable Development Goal’s targets and indicators – a five-city study. Environ. Urban. 28, 49–63 (2015).

Conclusions:

As Prof. Chris Zegras notes (his point 9): “…it's very surprising that our city proposes basically throwing planning out the window: Eliminate any constraints and let the market decide!” Following in the lines of Professors Garmina Jain and Jessica Espey, in Cambridge we have the data to do both smart and thoughtful planning as well as up-zoning the right way. Present and future residents deserve this from us. 

Linked below is the slide deck on the proposed Cambridge up-zoning proposal presented at the Porter Square Neighborhood Association. 

One resident, writes to the PSNA listserve about the data presented here:

​Great slide presentation (see attached) providing comprehensive background material to serve as context for discussion of the proposed upzoning ordinance.  Wish I had been there to hear presentation!  To give an example of what I learned just glancing through the slides, apparently almost 2/3 of my fellow condo dwellers in Cambridge (62%) actually rent their units.  Since moving to my current home in 2019, I wondered why my building was so transient?  Now I know why! 
 
A 2nd example of what I learned reviewing these slides: there are roughly 72,000 people working in the Cambridge biotech sector -- just imagine the impacts that this workforce exerts on the local housing market!  In 1998, I published a paper (based on my dissertation) speculating as to what would happen to biotechnology as a potential replacement industry in the Boston area for high tech sectors active in the 1980s (i.e., minicomputers during the 'Mass. Miracle').  In the mid-nineties, as I recall, there were about 10,000 workers in the regional biotech industry.  What a difference a quarter century has made!  
 
In addition, Suzanne Blier has also recently produced an excellent blog that speculates (comprehensively) on the potential impacts that the incoming Trump administration could conceivably exert on local initiatives in cities like Cambridge.  It is also highly relevant viewing for community activists worried about what 2025 may bring our way!

The current Cambridge Upzoning proposal, brought to us by the pro-developer group on Council and working for the City is primarily focused on two things: 1. adding much more housing (regardless of type or likely impacts) and 2. increasing city density above current high density levels. We are currently listed as top 5-7% of the most dense cities in the country with a population over 100,000. What the proposed up-zoning plan will NOT do as written is to bring down the cost of housing here (a key interest of most Cambridge residents). Other cities have created plans that target the types of housing they want to see built, and often that includes factors that could reduce housing cost increases that we are now seeing on a near global scale. Let's look at the Cambridge housing data more closely using ChatGPT to help us address these questions using the Cambridge Property Database. ​                      

Many cities feature particular areas of the urban landmass to focus greater height and density, specifically in those areas that are not currently being developed. Cambridge might do that as well, by offering a premium (greater height and FAR/density allowances) to  currently vacant properties.  Currently we have a range of vacant lots identified as follows: Residential Development Land (130 lots); Commercial Development Land (390 lots); Industrial Development Land (440). A number of these would be great targets of opportunity. The key advantage of these sites is that they would not require the demolition of existing homes and the evictions or lease terminations of existing residents to achieve new housing goals. While these sites are more heavily in our former factory-linked areas of the city, there are enough of them around Cambridge to ensure that these opportunities would be balance.  The below maps are color coded to show the most valuable properties in a darker blue. ​

What also is evident here is the far greater interest in Single Family Housing (SFH) over Two Family Homes (TFH) and Three Family Homes (3FH), as well as the higher price point for each. 

Single Family Homes on larger lots carry an especially high value, which makes them less likely to result in demolitions to build far taller,  multi-family homes. ​

Larger 1 and 2 family homes across the city now are largely all of high points. ​

Let's turn specifically to our Condominium stock and how prices are impacted in it. The city database provides us with key information on ownership.   As of Fiscal Year 2022, Cambridge, MA, had a total of 14,573 condominium units.  Of these, 5,542 units received the residential exemption, while 9,031 did not. This means approximately 38% of condos benefited from the exemption, and 62% did not.

The residential exemption is available to homeowners who occupy their property as their primary residence. In Fiscal Year 2025, the exemption amount is $499,263, resulting in tax savings of $3,170 for eligible residents.

In the top-row maps below. The blue dots represent the owner occupied condos. The red dots represent the non-owner occupied units. The latter are investment properties and  are likely rented out to Cambridge residents at higher costs because the investor also is seeking to benefit monetarily from these. ​

In Cambridge and across the country the COVID epidemic left a huge impact not only on individual lives and the economy, but also on the housing situation. With supply chain stoppages, and with a lack of builders almost every city in the country was impacted- including Cambridge. How do we compare to other cities?  Very well! 
​

The data below on residents and housing is from analysis of the current most advanced AI (ChatGPT) using census and other city data around issues of housing. I am happy to share the detailed analysis math with you.
 
Average Ages of City Residents

• c.42-46 years old is the Average Age (and 40-46 years old is the Median age) of Cambridge residents once we remove college students, graduate students, post docs, and interns. This is considerably higher than the 30.6 average age number that Is now being used for the average age of regular residents here. The reason this latter number is problematic to use is not only because it includes our large, short term student populations (many of whom are here for 1-4 years only, but also because it is often used in an agist and disparaging manner to negate the views of older residents who attend meetings.

 People on Cambridge Lists for Public Housing

• c.3400 is the number of  unique Cambridge residents, workers, affiliates on our list for public housing. This is a manageable number to provide for. The number often cited by the city and public housing advocates of 21,000 individuals on the housing list misrepresents the number because we do not require people to reapply each year and many have already found homes or have left the area. And most e are on multiple lists (in Cambridge and elsewhere) simultaneously.

City Homeowner numbers

• c.40-45% is the home ownership rate in Cambridge, and approximately 55-60% of the housing units are owner occupied. The large majority of these are condo owners. The remaining housing is rental units.
• c. 208 and 550 Cambridge homes are likely owned by students, doctoral students, and interns: This represents c.1.0% to 2.5% of the total owner-occupied homes
• 2-3 years is the average length of time that students, grad students, and interns in Cambridge own their homes with some variation depending on individual circumstances.
• 520 to 1,300 homes in Cambridge may be vacant for more than 9 months each year.
• 200-825 homes is the number of vacant city homes  (or 10%-30%) likely due to speculation.

 
City Renters/Rental Units

• c.31,200 to 38,500 is the number of rental units in Cambridge. A large # of these units are occupied by students, postdocs, and interns.
• c.16,900 to 23,600 rental units are occupied by the student/post doc groups.
• c.7,600 to 14,000 rental units, are likely occupied by long-term residents, which include families, professionals, and non-student adults.
• c.54% to 63% of our rental units are occupied by student affiliated renters.
• c.37% to 46% of our rental units are occupied by long-term residents.
• 1.2 years. Average rental stay of students, postdocs, and interns, depending on their specific academic or professional circumstances. Note: Every time a rental property turns over (lease is changed) it is likely that the rental rates will rise.
• 7-10 years. Average rental stay of long-term residents,
• Conclusions: What we really need are rental units in Cambridge (and this is precisely what Vancouver and some other cities are adding, rather than fueling the investor market with more luxury condos. San Francisco and other cities with large university students have more effectively advocated for increased housing by local universities and bio-tech and info-tech industries.
• We need to step back and look at likely impacts of the election on soft money staffing and housing needs of area universities and hospitals. Doing a massive upzoning that will only fuel more land speculation will likely do serious harm.

 
  Possible Evictions due to upzoning  (if the 6 story properties in residential properties citywide is Ordained.

• 1,000-2,000 demolished residential properties are expected over the first decade of redevelopment.
• 2,000-6,000 displaced tenants. Assuming each building is occupied by an average of 2-3 tenants per unit, this could result in 2,000-6,000 tenants being displaced in the early stages of redevelopment.

 
Housing Needs and Election Outcomes. In the aftermath of the recent election, I did an analysis of likely impacts of this event on Cambridge Housing Needs, and found that in all likelihood, the demand for new housing (outside investor interests) will likely decline substantially.  I take into account the likely impacts on local universities, hospitals, biotech, and other fields. Read HERE 
 
Since housing needs are likely to significantly decline, I urge you hold off on a massive upzoning until we know the fuller election impacts. I know that universities are already meeting on the impacts of the election on related numbers and programs internally. I also strongly urge you to read my analysis what specifically other progressive cities have done re-upzoning. It is NOT what some on council and elsewhere have said: Read: Zoning Lessons From other Cities: Will We Heed Them?.
The current upzoning proposal is way off base as far as these far more detailed other proposals are concerned.  
 
Read other housing linked blog posts (https://www.suzanneprestonblier.com/civic-blogs

In the above composite of photographic image,  we see not only both historic and contemporary images of tall towers dedicated to wealth and achievement, but also societal implications. The 12th-13th century Bologna Italy tall towers were key monuments to the status and safety of the wealthy. Originally there were many more tall towers here, but most have been taken down. In NYC and elsewhere we have increasing numbers of tall high-status linked towers, for offices and wealthy residences, that have done nothing to bring down housing prices, instead have led to even higher prices.
 
In NYC, as in Cambridge there is a push to supersede current zoning laws and preservation efforts, despite the fact that studies have shown in both cities that preservation districts have less high increases in property value and housing costs. On the near right is a photograph from the Farm Security Administration by Arthur Rothstein of life for the recently unemployed and unhoused in the Great Depression (framed by some to the realities of “last hired, first fired” and on the right one of our city’s increasing numbers of unhoused (photo by Geo Desplagnes).
 
Today Cambridge residents are experiencing the new reality that  all local nonessential water use is banned due to an ongoing drought. City staff have admitted is that some areas of the city likely will face a lack of water on occasions.  Like local global warming impacts, the recent presidential, Senate and House election results will have serious impacts too. It is important that the city begin to do serious planning for best possible out-comes in the turmoil ahead. The city should convene an emergency task force, bringing together core decision makers and experts.
 
There likely will be significant health, employment, financial, environment, and societal impacts that Cambridge and the area will face.  These are just some of the areas where  serious impacts loom. And, as part of any decision-making on the proposed radical citywide up-zoning is made, key outcome scenarios must be addressed.
 
A recent study (9.17.2024)  of Cambridge and Massachusetts out-migration (HERE) notes that “Massachusetts had a lower outmigration rate (2.4 percent) for households with incomes above $200,000 than 38 other states did, including all but two (Texas and South Dakota) of the seven states that have no income tax….Looking only at high-income households (those with incomes above $200,000), the replacement rate is 78 percent. In other words, for every five high-income households that depart, four other high-income households find reasons to move to Massachusetts."
 
The November 2004 elections will have a major impact on the local economy, on residents, and on our core housing needs. Below are some of the possible consequences that we should reflect on before Council votes on a citywide up-zoning that likely will result in the demolition of our existing more affordable housing, the forcing of current lower- and middle-income residents from our city, and the replacement of these residents with far wealthier residents and more investment properties.
 
Here is a summary of possible election and other outcomes:
 
Health/Tech Industries and Employment: Both Trump and his close ally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr ran on an anti-vaccine agenda and a push to end ACA/Obamacare with no alternative in place, and a greatly diminished FDA (through which many of our drugs are tested and brought to the market). A key part of our local Cambridge and area economy is based on biotech and medical-linked industries: the creation of new drugs (biotech, pharma), and large teaching hospitals that draw clients and staff from across the region.

• How much will our local resident and employee numbers decline once these core industries are reduced?
• These industries all heavily supported by individual local, area, national and international health needs, but without something like ACA to help support individual medical expenses, likely acquisition of needed medicines and current health services will decline.
• If threatened arrests and removal of members of key minority groups (Haitians, Africans, Latin Americans, and others) are forthcoming this will greatly diminish the numbers of these care workers, and the family incomes of those they reside with.
• Much of the staffing in our local hospitals and home health care has come from local immigrant populations.
• Much of the research funding in both our universities and medical institutions is “soft money” (based on grants), and with cutbacks to NSF, NIH, and others, employment will fall.
• Much of our medical and other scientific instruments, medical supplies, and pharmaceutical components are imported and tariffs will make it more expensive and difficult to maintain the international leadership role we have had.
• All of this will impact the finances of other participants in the health industry.
• This also has implications for Cambridge and area housing.
• Will local high-end housing be as desirable to the very wealthy new biotech employees?
• Will biotech companies still choose to remain here?
• Will our hospitals remain as large with a smaller client base and staff.
• What will the Cambridge housing situation look like in the next 3-4 years with fewer local area employees?
• With the likely cutbacks of ACA and Medicare, the neediest members of our residential base, will likely be even more in need, and city finances will have to be repositioned to help them.
• AI is becoming an important new component of Cambridge tech economy, though some groups, such as Thermo Fisher, are opening elsewhere (Buffalo, NY), laying off 2.5% of their Cambridge employees.
• One key feature of the Tech and life sciences sector is how energy intensive they are, AI among these. Buffalo has the advantage of Niagara Falls (a key electricity resource).
• How will ongoing problems in acquiring needed electricity impact not only commercial AI work, but also related university work (MIT, Harvard and others). Will we see more of this work moving elsewhere to other settings and universities with staff losses, and a reduction in local housing needs?
• How do these commercial electrical grid requirements for AI and other work compare and compete with  current Cambridge environmental policies (BEUDO and others)? How much more will local residents, many with fewer resources, be able to bear these costs?

 
Internationally Focused Impacts (military, visitors, tariffs, investments).  The nation’s new inward-focused turn, away from international engagement and related military and financial endeavors carries considerable potential implications for Cambridge and the Boston area. Cambridge benefits significantly from national and international tourism. Changes to the economy more broadly and our relationships with other nation states will likely be impacted.

• With anticipated move against immigrants, there will be many fewer workers in universities, hospitals, and businesses, as well as far less and more expensive in homecare. This may also mean a decreased number of people living here which will likely decrease needs for new housing and open up current homes for other residents.
• With the proposed push against immigrants (documented and undocumented) and their families, will farm produce die on the vine, will once thriving farms no longer be planted? This will lead to increased food costs and increased poverty and hunger.
• Tourism is a key part of the local Cambridge economy, impacting local businesses, hotels, with possibly fewer international visitors if the U.S. seeks to realign away from Europe and NATO and more with the axis of autocrats: Russia, North Korea, Eastern Europe, and Turkey. The biggest impact will be on local hotels and local businesses, transport, supplies, and related tax losses.
• Increasing tariffs of select country imports, will greatly impact the availability and cost of building and other supplies for our local commercial industry and universities, as well as significantly increase the costs to local residents in terms of costs of food, clothing, and regular household needs. For residents this will make it even less possible for them to pay high rental costs, and likely will force out more of our lower- and middle-income residents, cutting down on housing needs, and increasing the loss of minority and other lower-middle income residents as well as seniors and others on a fixed income. This will reduce the need for new housing and will increase the need for substantially subsidized public housing (and other support) in the city.
• A number of these military-tech employees live in Cambridge and other nearby communities. Will military investment (armaments & technology) decline as the U.S. turns inward (away from international engagement)? This is a significant part of our broader Boston area tax base.
• As we move against international participation in various contestations, a reduction in military spending in Boston and Worcester area will likely mean a loss of research money, as well as primary area jobs, and secondary supply and transportation networks.
• MIT and Harvard are also highly dependent on military-linked funding for key university programs. The loss of research and support funding will likely be met with loss of some employment and students.
• International investment in Cambridge property may continue at current paces, particularly as more potentially destabilizing crypto currencies compete with the U.S. dollar for international primacy. Conceivably these investment properties (as now) will remain empty, since land values likely will remain higher than the values of new and older buildings constructed on them.

 
Area University Impacts

• Harvard’s donations are down 14% - a $151 million decline - one of the largest declines in the last decade. This in part reflects issues centered in the Middle East (Donor backlash on both sides of the issue).
• Republican House attacks on Harvard, MIT, area universities and universities more generally, are impactful, and will likely lead to even more financial decreases, particularly if, as threatened the House goes after Harvard endowments.
• As Harvard Endowments decline, there will be considerable belt tightening. In the past, Harvard has often shared endowment funding  to benefit academic university functions such as support for teaching and students in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and other Sectors. What impacts with the new more consequential belt-tightening do now?
• This large decrease in donations will likely cut down programs and staff and graduate programs which will lead to fewer staff and graduate students in need of housing.
• If Congress choses to tax Harvard’s endowments, some $53.2 billion, there are two plans in play: One would assess $100 million annually based on endowment value per student. Another proposed plan is for an excise tax of  $2 billion annually based on 2022 endowment values, with Harvard paying the most, $1.2 billion.
•  In play now is a College Endowment tax in the Endowment Accountability Act that would raise the excise tax on endowment net investment income from 1.4 percent to 35 percent for private colleges and universities.
• Harvard pushed to cut the 35% tax (at $50 million annually in 2022). Other area universities also face these taxes. What will happen going forward? All these assessments, and endowment cuts will likely lead to program, staff, and student support cuts.
• City Councillor Jivan Sobrinho-Wheeler has called for Harvard to increase payment to the city of Cambridge from $4.3 million in lieu of property taxes to $96 million. This $92 million in losses, likely would lead to still further cutbacks in staff and programs, bringing down the need for increased housing to address student, staff and other needs.
• At MIT, plausible loss of soft money (research funds from NSF, NIH, military other) and a cutback in biotech/medical tech industry here, key components of which are renting commercial properties from MIT, will likely lead to declining resources, and cutbacks to programing staff and students.
• These increased costs will lead to decreases in Cambridge and area housing needs, as well as decreasing financial taxable revenue for local businesses.
• Increased tariffs on supplies will also impact area university costs across the board
• The move against immigrants will impact university staffing, likely leading to greater staffing costs, and further program cutbacks.
• Larger impacts: with likely sizable decreases in staff, graduate students, housing will decrease.

Other Impacts: Financial, Environmental, and Social

• As inflation rises with international tariffs, inflation is likely to increase, decreasing the number of new home-starts due to increased costs and lack of supplies. As costs increase, more local workers may leave the area.
• With the likely increased legal and legislative pushback against unions, workers in the building trades, and others will have decreased financial well being, and their ability to purchase homes in the area may decrease.
• Out-movement of lower and middle-income residents that has already been in play in Massachusetts will likely continue, as residents look for less expensive settings elsewhere. Their homes will now be available to others.
• City employers will likely seek to address the lack of local workers in part through more remote work where possible. This will lower needed salary costs but will also decrease the need for Cambridge-specific housing (and the clogging of local and area streets), creating a situation closer to COVID conditions.
• With cutbacks to NEA, NEH and other funding, and fewer local, national and area visitors, and increasing costs for supplies due to tariffs and inflation, local area museums likely will need to cut back on exhibitions and staff.
• With fewer visitors, and fewer university staff, students, and bio-tech/info-tech and other employees, there likely will be a slowdown in the entertainment industry (hotels, restaurants, museums, and their staff and supplies), a sector that still has not recovered from the pandemic, and will be even worse off with inflation and the cutbacks to university programs and staff.
• Cambridge infrastructure costs and problems are likely to increase, not only with fewer and more expensive supplies (the tariff issue), but also decreasing state funding for city and area public transportation.
• Tall towers and the loss of green spaces and trees that are part of the proposed up-zoning will add to heat island impacts, impacting health and additional needed for air conditioning. Demolitions will lead to: the filling of dump sites,  environmentally costly demolishing of trees elsewhere, energy use to create new replacement materials, and transportation costs.  
• Environmental impacts of global warming will continue to be felt, but we will have fewer means to address them Public transport and needed infrastructure changes will be more expensive with inflation combined with decreasing and more expensive supplies. With the likely ending of Biden’s pro-environmental Inflation Reduction Act, needed supplies and benefits will decrease.
•  When there are greatly increased local needs due to increased massive storms, drought, fires, or rising water levels, there will likely be less federal support. Not only will key federal agencies see cuts, but federal emergency assistance programs will also see cuts. Political factors (targeting Blue States) may be an additional problem. With increased costs to basic supplies for upgrading our infrastructure – water, electrical and other, due to both tariffs and inflation, we will be less able as a city to prepare for respond to local climate-based problems. Local residents will increasingly face such costs on their own.  
• Cambridge is already facing sizable tax loses by the 30% empty offices and we are increasingly paying more in financial costs to pay our massive debt. In the near future, we will see a need for reducing or cutting city staff and programs. This will mean that housing needs will decrease.
• If the U.S. government choses to continue or even extend tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations, this will put serious strain on the national debt, which many feel is currently at unsustainable levels.
• The increasing national debt likely will result in further U.S. government cuts to social programs benefiting middle income residents, the near poor, and the very poor. Many of these individuals and family will be living in Cambridge in our AHO, Section 8 and other housing. Added financial support for these residents, with likely decreased amounts of available city funding, will be a serious challenge.
• Cambridge and the area likely will face the challenge of even more unhoused (we should remind ourselves of scenes during the Great Depression of the 1930s). This will take even more funding to address in an already more difficult financial situation for the city.

In summary, the city and area likely will be facing sizable turbulence in the years ahead as a result of changing national political dynamics. While some may benefit, many of the forces that have led to the current Cambridge vitality (including our universities and tech industries) will likely be greatly compromised. Not only will many current residents (and city workers) likely move elsewhere with employment opportunities (reducing critical housing need), but Cambridge will be facing sizable increased financial difficulty alongside a local population in greater financial need both for public financed housing and other resources.
 
As other city studies have noted, upzoning tends to result in the removal of minority residents and their replacement by wealthier white residents. The proposed upzoning will only exacerbate that problem. It is very likely that the proposed up-zoning will not only increase disparities between wealthy and poor, but also force out more of our minority groups. Outside investors and developers rarely place social need and accountability above financial gain, so there will be few if any who will seek to create housing with 10+ units. Most will build at most 9 units (and more likely fewer at shorter heights) which will enable them to benefit financially far more. This will add far more expensive luxury housing to our local housing corpus, including in the few places of the city that are large enough for them, tall Trump tower structures, as a badge of the very wealthy and their investor interests.

​We know well the image of the hat-wearing cat  in Dr. Seuss's classic children's books, the Cat in the Hat, and the Cat in the Hat Comes Back. The illustrations and text speak to breaking normative rules, making a mess, creating chaos, and  challenging the established order laid out by the “authorities” (the parents). At a recent Cambridge City Council meeting addressing the proposed citywide up-zoning (see above photo), Iram Farooq,  Director of Cambridge's Community Development Department, addressed councillors and residents alike in a Cat in the Hat Halloween costume. Whether the costume was disrespectful in this context, others will have to decide. However this also conforms with a 2024 linked-in ad by our city's lead zoning expert and department chair, Jeff Roberts seeking someone to "join the merry band of mischief-makers known as the Cambridge Zoning & Development Division." He added that if this sounds like "fun" individuals should apply. However, zoning language and its impacts are not intended to be either funny or fun.

Major up-zoning changes are serious business with both intended and unintended consequences,  including  sometimes irrevocable changes (in the case of demolitions or losses that cause environmental harm. Like Halloween (one time Devil's Night) zoning can have positive impacts (residents facing factory toxins) and negative impacts. In the 1950s new urban renewal policies led to the razing of lower income neighborhoods and tenants would have been forced out to make way for larger  highways or new very tall residential towers.

In some ways the Cat and the Hat context also is apt to the proposed citywide up-zoning that breaks with long established local and city wide residential zoning laws. To the key question of financial impacts of the upzoning to lowering our housing costs, she insisted that there was no way to know the outcomes. This is in some ways true since the current proposal is entirely dependent on market forces and the large numbers of outside investors seeking to profit on Cambridge's highly expensive and greatly in-demand housing stock.  As to infrastructure impacts on the proposal, other city staff noted  that available water might be in short supply in some areas depending on the location and proposed development, but increased vehicular traffic could be handled on existing streets 

All of this brings pause, pushing us to seek possible answers (and potential solutions) in what other progressive cities are doing. See also our recent blogpost, Zoning Lessons From Other Cities: Will We Heed Them? Evidence from other cities's upzoning proposals are great models, and should be required reading for Cambridge staff and elected officials before any plan is finalized and any vote takes place. The 2023 Urban Institute land use study reveals that in a study of 1,136 cities where zoning was loosened (allowing more multi-family housing in once single-family areas), rent increases, decreased (to 0.8%). Significantly, this same report observes that “outcomes vary by market segment” and that up-zoning also can“…reduce affordable housing in neighborhoods….” [emphasis added]. While the Urban Institute study authors of this study maintain that “the economic principles of supply and demand …should reduce scarcity and increase competition among sellers” (lowering housing purchase and rental costs), this has not happened in other high demand cities such as Vancouver, but indeed has pushed costs even higher. Urban Planner, Patrick Condon explains this in light of key differences in how urban land value (and investments) function versus  other commodities in addressing the Vancouver housing cost issue in a local business journal – the BIV (May 2023) among other important writings.  

As noted in an October 2024 publication ULI (read HERE) analysis by Boston/Cambridge  based authors, Scott Pollack and Susan Connelly, up-zoning in “densely built-out neighborhoods” such as those in Cambridge, does NOT see an increase in supply. They cite the lack of potential profit from in-fill housing projects, so for investors and home owners alike this does not make financial sense. According to this same ULI study

• The price of homes is so high right now that adding units to existing properties creates little-to-no additional residual value.
• Low financial viability made requiring affordability in the projects difficult and/or impossible;
• Yet the upzoning appears to have only impacted development on about 6% of the land deregulated, creating only slightly more development when compared to lots where the zoning was left alone.
• Far better results occurred in contexts where underutilized areas were addressed, as in the Assembly Square area, of Somerville. Indeed, they note that “[z]oning reform has proven highly successful in underutilized areas or those zoned for outdated uses.”
• “Existing, dense neighborhoods with small lots provide limited opportunities to create viable, larger parcels and projects that can cover today’s expensive construction market.” 

In short, the current proposal to radically up-zone our residential neighborhoods will not lead to much if any new housing, and may have undesirable impacts, by not only making housing here more expensive, but also dramatically changing current city demographics. We need smart, thoughtful policies not "cat-in-the-hat" chaos that are unlikely to achieve the impacts one wants, and will likely do great harm. 

A November 2024 study of Housing and Racial Demographics Analysis in New York focused on up-zoning outcomes in city neighborhoods based on 2010-2022 census data found that those areas with high levels of new housing construction (many due to up-zonings)  “overwhelmingly saw a rise in the White share of their population, and drops in the Black and Hispanic shares” (emphasis added).  Moreover, “in neighborhoods with lower-to-moderate levels of new housing development the White share decreased, and the Hispanic share increased, while the Black share either increased or decreased more slowly than it did in the high-growth areas or citywide.” As this study points out, many of the latter neighborhoods “…have landmark or zoning protections that moderate and carefully control the scale and extent of new development.”

Similar outcomes can be seen in Cambridge whereas we have shown in the past, Neighborhood Conservation Districts (NCD) see housing costs rising less rapidly than in those parts of the city without NCDs.

The proposed Cambridge proposed plan likely will increase housing costs (and property values) – making it harder to create affordable housing, and more difficult to bring down home ownership and rental costs. As the authors of three studies cited here make clear, free market policies do not always make housing cheaper, can often also have the reverse impact. Indeed

• In Cambridge, MA the highest rents and salaries are now in East Cambridge.
• East Cambridge also has the highest number and density of new homes built.
• Many East Cambridge units likely were purchased by investors who do not live here.
• In the province of Ottawa, Canada, 85% of newly built condos have gone to investors.  Read more HERE

 None of the upzoning studies addressed here speak to the negative environmental impacts that such up-zoning will have on neighborhoods with the attendant loss of private property green spaces and trees, however related heat island impacts will also be felt.
​
CONCLUSIONS:
The current Cambridge citywide up-zoning proposal likely will have notably diverse and unpredictable outcomes in some parts of the city it may add even more high density housing (particularly our once lower income neighborhoods). In other cases it likely will lead to a decrease in the number of homes, as investors simply buy up more one, two, and three family homes to create much larger (far more expensive) single family housing and luxury condos, enhancing gentrification and demographic disparities and shifts even further. Our current plan  ill likely increase racial disparities, forcing more Black and Hispanic residents out, to be replaced by a whiter, wealthier population. Our earlier blog post Los Angeles decided to maintain 72% of its neighborhoods as single family only because the city could not “handle all that growth.” Read more HERE and  HERE 

The city's up-zoning proposal as intended, will also make it more difficult to control outcomes as it shifts the city voluntary boards or agencies toward less control, and our neighborhoods to more disruption, and potential free fall: In key ways this proposal seeks to counter thoughtful planning, replacing long standing policy to drivers based  solely on the market differing significantly from other progressive cities such as Austin, Chicago, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Vancouver – as well as Somerville and Boston. These other centers have initiated strategic upzoning plans that are structured around a set of givens (and specific intended outcomes and results). Cambridge’s up-zoning plan as currently written is driven almost entirely by investor and developer interests and what appears to be a simultaneously neo-Liberal and Libertarian framework. This is not the kind of thoughtful housing plan that current and future residents deserve.

While The Cat in the Hat may be a clever children’s story of chaos, disorder, and bedlam as rules are being thrown out (providing here some necessary comic relief), city planning and zoning are serious business. Dr. Seuss's  famous hat-wearing cat was able to magically change  the children's messy and chaotic house  back to “normal” before the parents returned. That kind of magic wand reset is not possible in an historically house rich city such as Cambridge. Once  historic homes are destroyed, they are gone forever, and often their one-time residents are forced to move on as well.

​The term "bottom line" refers to many things, most generally in financial account contexts, balance sheet, and the horizontal line that delimits the difference between assembled numbers and their sums, but it also speaks to the most essential (or salient) points in a subject under discussion. Lines are essential in conveying design concepts and plans. Often the best way to understand the new Cambridge citywide up-zoning for market rate housing is to try to visualize these changes in an actual setting. This is what the above graphic shows, a specific property on Kirkland Street on a residential street in Mid-Cambridge and what a newly allowable structure might look like, plans that would not require city design oversight. The neighborhood impacts would be sizable, as would be the financial impacts, greatly increasing the the property values here and in the neighborhood, increasing tax rates significantly. 

​Cambridge Citywide Up-zoning Proposal Background: Much of the initial conversation on the up-zoning took place in the City Council Housing Committee, co-chaired by XX, this was done "before drafting language" (although key ideas were in place by then after discussions with developers and prior to any “community engagement.” For further discussion with residents of the city it will be up to neighborhood groups and others. Discussion is likely to continue into the new year and if this upzoning petition is not approved by Council by March it will not be enacted. There have been two proposed amendments (one to increase building heights on corridors and squares and another to include modifications based on current district differences. Neither appears to be in play.
 
What is being addressed in Cambridge? Is it housing that is more affordable? A changing city demographic?  and/or a different type of neighborhood form or housing typologies? A recent study released by Village Preservation analyzing 2010-2022 census data in NYC neighborhoods found that those with high levels of new housing construction — (many due to up-zonings)  “overwhelmingly saw a rise in the White share of their population, and drops in the Black and Hispanic shares.” In addition, the study found neighborhoods with the lower-to-moderate levels of new housing development saw the White share of their population decrease and the Hispanic share increase, while the Black share either increased or decreased more slowly than it did in the high-growth areas or citywide. Many of these neighborhoods have landmark or zoning protections that moderate and carefully control the scale and extent of new development. 
 
This is a move toward less control, more disruption, and potential free fall: In some ways this proposal seeks to counter planning, to promote a policy driven solely by the market and, unlike other progressive cities (such as Austin, Chicago, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Vancouver – as well as Somerville and Boston.  These other centers instead have initiated strategic upzoning that are structured to achieve a set of givens (results), this one as currently written, is driven almost entirely by investor and developer interests within a distinctive neo-Liberal-Libertarian framework. This is not the kind of targeted plan that current and future residents deserve.
  
BOTTOM LINE ON THE CURRENT UP-ZONING PROPOSAL
*What Up-zoning Proposal Amendments Are Most Important
 
1.Design Review for all projects 4 stories and higher: Any upzoning plan must retain design review and oversight for any new structure or addition of 4 stories or more.
a.Architects and developers are long-familiar with design critique, know how effective this can be.
b.Good design does not cost any more than bad design.
c.This is the only way that professionals and neighbors get to offer critical insight on new buildings.
d.A recent Chicago study notes that “streamlining permitting” has had a “negligible effect on generating new supply” Allowing triplexes in formerly single-family lots “led to more housing over time because the per-unit construction and development costs are vastly lower than for a single-family home.”  See Nov-Dec 2024 Harvard Magazine 
e.Requiring design review and oversight  is the only way to maintain control over shoddy materials and design factors.
f.Unlike the AHO, where the city may decline to rehire a firm that does a poor job, this market rate upzoning proposal will have no oversight over developments on smaller properties and developments.
g.An 11/2024 article in Cambridge Day shows a 15 year old condo building that is already run down and in need of millions in city funding for key repairs.
 
2.Limit up-zoning rules and benefits only to projects involving more (new) housing specifically only those projects including three or more new units will be eligible for inclusion in this upzoning.
a.Conversion of two-family homes into single family homes (SFH) and smaller SFH into larger single-family homes is now widespread in Cambridge and other areas – the McMansion effect (the desire for even more space).
b.We are seeing this city wide, as well as in denser neighborhoods such as Riverside, North Cambridge, and Cambridgeport.
c.Using the upzoning to enable investors to create Iarger single family homes decreases the number of people that can live on a property (in the city), and it arbitrarily increases property values and taxes for their neighbors, it also increases the costs of housing city wide.
 
3.Limit neighborhood district heights to 3 stories (35’) (see below #c) and add extra 2 stories (to 55’) for projects with 20% inclusionary or 20% secured affordable rentals or 20% publicly funded home acquisitions that return to the city when owner leaves.
a.Require a minimum of 5’ from the sides, 10’ at the rear, and front setbacks complementary to those nearby. Allow corner properties to have a 10’ front setbacks.
b.Require that open space be permeable (green space). Variance is required to increase maximum height (Vancouver).
c.By limiting heights to 3 stories, this will encourage more inclusionary or secured affordable rentals,
 
4.Require a Public Benefit or Betterment Fee (System Development Fee) – funds by the investor or developer to go toward public good – for example a public transit system. In many places with upzoning the public is provided a means to benefit from such a large-scale giveaway (to capture part of the increased value).
a.Example: Provide a waiver for numbers of affordable units added (as done in Portland Oregon and Vancouver Canada).
b.See why in the March 2024 land policy study by Murry and Gordon HERE
 
5.Add a Preservation Waiver: Provide a waiver (in the Public Benefit Fee for projects that preserve, renovate and reuse historic “character building” rather than demolish buildings (or add an additional fee when a “character building” is demolished).
a.This is to conserve neighborhood character and to keep materials out of landfill (Vancouver, Canada and Austin, Tx)
b.Use current CHC historic valuation designations in evaluating such homes.
 
6.On major corridors add a minimum height requirement of six stories with added adjacent rear or side neighborhood step downs to complement nearby homes. This is the only means to address our current underutilization of property in commercial or mixed-use zones especially adjacent to major public transit lines (and is part of Minneapolis’ new up-zoning model)
 
7.Require Regular & Ongoing Reviews: two 3-year reviews and then regular 10 year reviews. This report must address, among other things, the following:
a.Number of new units created and by types/ sites etc.
b.What are the new housing costs? How has this impacted housing costs in the district and the city?
c.Who are the new owners or renters? (current or outside residents? income levels? demographic data?)
d.What are gentrification impacts.
e.Impacts: what happened to renters or others who lived in the structure up to 3 years prior.
f.Impacts: environmental and Infrastructure: trees removed, green space loss, changes re. electrical, water, schools, transit etc.
g.Impacts: number and types of demolitions.
h.Impacts: based on interviews with neighborhood groups and/or residents.