Towering Impacts: Planning Locally for the Realities Ahead

In the above composite of photographic image,  we see not only both historic and contemporary images of tall towers dedicated to wealth and achievement, but also societal implications. The 12th-13th century Bologna Italy tall towers were key monuments to the status and safety of the wealthy. Originally there were many more tall towers here, but most have been taken down. In NYC and elsewhere we have increasing numbers of tall high-status linked towers, for offices and wealthy residences, that have done nothing to bring down housing prices, instead have led to even higher prices.
 
In NYC, as in Cambridge there is a push to supersede current zoning laws and preservation efforts, despite the fact that studies have shown in both cities that preservation districts have less high increases in property value and housing costs. On the near right is a photograph from the Farm Security Administration by Arthur Rothstein of life for the recently unemployed and unhoused in the Great Depression (framed by some to the realities of “last hired, first fired” and on the right one of our city’s increasing numbers of unhoused (photo by Geo Desplagnes).
 
Today Cambridge residents are experiencing the new reality that  all local nonessential water use is banned due to an ongoing drought. City staff have admitted is that some areas of the city likely will face a lack of water on occasions.  Like local global warming impacts, the recent presidential, Senate and House election results will have serious impacts too. It is important that the city begin to do serious planning for best possible out-comes in the turmoil ahead. The city should convene an emergency task force, bringing together core decision makers and experts.
 
There likely will be significant health, employment, financial, environment, and societal impacts that Cambridge and the area will face.  These are just some of the areas where  serious impacts loom. And, as part of any decision-making on the proposed radical citywide up-zoning is made, key outcome scenarios must be addressed.
 
A recent study (9.17.2024)  of Cambridge and Massachusetts out-migration (HERE) notes that “Massachusetts had a lower outmigration rate (2.4 percent) for households with incomes above $200,000 than 38 other states did, including all but two (Texas and South Dakota) of the seven states that have no income tax….Looking only at high-income households (those with incomes above $200,000), the replacement rate is 78 percent. In other words, for every five high-income households that depart, four other high-income households find reasons to move to Massachusetts."
 
The November 2004 elections will have a major impact on the local economy, on residents, and on our core housing needs. Below are some of the possible consequences that we should reflect on before Council votes on a citywide up-zoning that likely will result in the demolition of our existing more affordable housing, the forcing of current lower- and middle-income residents from our city, and the replacement of these residents with far wealthier residents and more investment properties.
 
Here is a summary of possible election and other outcomes:
 
Health/Tech Industries and Employment: Both Trump and his close ally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr ran on an anti-vaccine agenda and a push to end ACA/Obamacare with no alternative in place, and a greatly diminished FDA (through which many of our drugs are tested and brought to the market). A key part of our local Cambridge and area economy is based on biotech and medical-linked industries: the creation of new drugs (biotech, pharma), and large teaching hospitals that draw clients and staff from across the region.

• How much will our local resident and employee numbers decline once these core industries are reduced?
• These industries all heavily supported by individual local, area, national and international health needs, but without something like ACA to help support individual medical expenses, likely acquisition of needed medicines and current health services will decline.
• If threatened arrests and removal of members of key minority groups (Haitians, Africans, Latin Americans, and others) are forthcoming this will greatly diminish the numbers of these care workers, and the family incomes of those they reside with.
• Much of the staffing in our local hospitals and home health care has come from local immigrant populations.
• Much of the research funding in both our universities and medical institutions is “soft money” (based on grants), and with cutbacks to NSF, NIH, and others, employment will fall.
• Much of our medical and other scientific instruments, medical supplies, and pharmaceutical components are imported and tariffs will make it more expensive and difficult to maintain the international leadership role we have had.
• All of this will impact the finances of other participants in the health industry.
• This also has implications for Cambridge and area housing.
• Will local high-end housing be as desirable to the very wealthy new biotech employees?
• Will biotech companies still choose to remain here?
• Will our hospitals remain as large with a smaller client base and staff.
• What will the Cambridge housing situation look like in the next 3-4 years with fewer local area employees?
• With the likely cutbacks of ACA and Medicare, the neediest members of our residential base, will likely be even more in need, and city finances will have to be repositioned to help them.
• AI is becoming an important new component of Cambridge tech economy, though some groups, such as Thermo Fisher, are opening elsewhere (Buffalo, NY), laying off 2.5% of their Cambridge employees.
• One key feature of the Tech and life sciences sector is how energy intensive they are, AI among these. Buffalo has the advantage of Niagara Falls (a key electricity resource).
• How will ongoing problems in acquiring needed electricity impact not only commercial AI work, but also related university work (MIT, Harvard and others). Will we see more of this work moving elsewhere to other settings and universities with staff losses, and a reduction in local housing needs?
• How do these commercial electrical grid requirements for AI and other work compare and compete with  current Cambridge environmental policies (BEUDO and others)? How much more will local residents, many with fewer resources, be able to bear these costs?

 
Internationally Focused Impacts (military, visitors, tariffs, investments).  The nation’s new inward-focused turn, away from international engagement and related military and financial endeavors carries considerable potential implications for Cambridge and the Boston area. Cambridge benefits significantly from national and international tourism. Changes to the economy more broadly and our relationships with other nation states will likely be impacted.

• With anticipated move against immigrants, there will be many fewer workers in universities, hospitals, and businesses, as well as far less and more expensive in homecare. This may also mean a decreased number of people living here which will likely decrease needs for new housing and open up current homes for other residents.
• With the proposed push against immigrants (documented and undocumented) and their families, will farm produce die on the vine, will once thriving farms no longer be planted? This will lead to increased food costs and increased poverty and hunger.
• Tourism is a key part of the local Cambridge economy, impacting local businesses, hotels, with possibly fewer international visitors if the U.S. seeks to realign away from Europe and NATO and more with the axis of autocrats: Russia, North Korea, Eastern Europe, and Turkey. The biggest impact will be on local hotels and local businesses, transport, supplies, and related tax losses.
• Increasing tariffs of select country imports, will greatly impact the availability and cost of building and other supplies for our local commercial industry and universities, as well as significantly increase the costs to local residents in terms of costs of food, clothing, and regular household needs. For residents this will make it even less possible for them to pay high rental costs, and likely will force out more of our lower- and middle-income residents, cutting down on housing needs, and increasing the loss of minority and other lower-middle income residents as well as seniors and others on a fixed income. This will reduce the need for new housing and will increase the need for substantially subsidized public housing (and other support) in the city.
• A number of these military-tech employees live in Cambridge and other nearby communities. Will military investment (armaments & technology) decline as the U.S. turns inward (away from international engagement)? This is a significant part of our broader Boston area tax base.
• As we move against international participation in various contestations, a reduction in military spending in Boston and Worcester area will likely mean a loss of research money, as well as primary area jobs, and secondary supply and transportation networks.
• MIT and Harvard are also highly dependent on military-linked funding for key university programs. The loss of research and support funding will likely be met with loss of some employment and students.
• International investment in Cambridge property may continue at current paces, particularly as more potentially destabilizing crypto currencies compete with the U.S. dollar for international primacy. Conceivably these investment properties (as now) will remain empty, since land values likely will remain higher than the values of new and older buildings constructed on them.

 
Area University Impacts

• Harvard’s donations are down 14% - a $151 million decline - one of the largest declines in the last decade. This in part reflects issues centered in the Middle East (Donor backlash on both sides of the issue).
• Republican House attacks on Harvard, MIT, area universities and universities more generally, are impactful, and will likely lead to even more financial decreases, particularly if, as threatened the House goes after Harvard endowments.
• As Harvard Endowments decline, there will be considerable belt tightening. In the past, Harvard has often shared endowment funding  to benefit academic university functions such as support for teaching and students in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and other Sectors. What impacts with the new more consequential belt-tightening do now?
• This large decrease in donations will likely cut down programs and staff and graduate programs which will lead to fewer staff and graduate students in need of housing.
• If Congress choses to tax Harvard’s endowments, some $53.2 billion, there are two plans in play: One would assess $100 million annually based on endowment value per student. Another proposed plan is for an excise tax of  $2 billion annually based on 2022 endowment values, with Harvard paying the most, $1.2 billion.
•  In play now is a College Endowment tax in the Endowment Accountability Act that would raise the excise tax on endowment net investment income from 1.4 percent to 35 percent for private colleges and universities.
• Harvard pushed to cut the 35% tax (at $50 million annually in 2022). Other area universities also face these taxes. What will happen going forward? All these assessments, and endowment cuts will likely lead to program, staff, and student support cuts.
• City Councillor Jivan Sobrinho-Wheeler has called for Harvard to increase payment to the city of Cambridge from $4.3 million in lieu of property taxes to $96 million. This $92 million in losses, likely would lead to still further cutbacks in staff and programs, bringing down the need for increased housing to address student, staff and other needs.
• At MIT, plausible loss of soft money (research funds from NSF, NIH, military other) and a cutback in biotech/medical tech industry here, key components of which are renting commercial properties from MIT, will likely lead to declining resources, and cutbacks to programing staff and students.
• These increased costs will lead to decreases in Cambridge and area housing needs, as well as decreasing financial taxable revenue for local businesses.
• Increased tariffs on supplies will also impact area university costs across the board
• The move against immigrants will impact university staffing, likely leading to greater staffing costs, and further program cutbacks.
• Larger impacts: with likely sizable decreases in staff, graduate students, housing will decrease.

Other Impacts: Financial, Environmental, and Social

• As inflation rises with international tariffs, inflation is likely to increase, decreasing the number of new home-starts due to increased costs and lack of supplies. As costs increase, more local workers may leave the area.
• With the likely increased legal and legislative pushback against unions, workers in the building trades, and others will have decreased financial well being, and their ability to purchase homes in the area may decrease.
• Out-movement of lower and middle-income residents that has already been in play in Massachusetts will likely continue, as residents look for less expensive settings elsewhere. Their homes will now be available to others.
• City employers will likely seek to address the lack of local workers in part through more remote work where possible. This will lower needed salary costs but will also decrease the need for Cambridge-specific housing (and the clogging of local and area streets), creating a situation closer to COVID conditions.
• With cutbacks to NEA, NEH and other funding, and fewer local, national and area visitors, and increasing costs for supplies due to tariffs and inflation, local area museums likely will need to cut back on exhibitions and staff.
• With fewer visitors, and fewer university staff, students, and bio-tech/info-tech and other employees, there likely will be a slowdown in the entertainment industry (hotels, restaurants, museums, and their staff and supplies), a sector that still has not recovered from the pandemic, and will be even worse off with inflation and the cutbacks to university programs and staff.
• Cambridge infrastructure costs and problems are likely to increase, not only with fewer and more expensive supplies (the tariff issue), but also decreasing state funding for city and area public transportation.
• Tall towers and the loss of green spaces and trees that are part of the proposed up-zoning will add to heat island impacts, impacting health and additional needed for air conditioning. Demolitions will lead to: the filling of dump sites,  environmentally costly demolishing of trees elsewhere, energy use to create new replacement materials, and transportation costs.  
• Environmental impacts of global warming will continue to be felt, but we will have fewer means to address them Public transport and needed infrastructure changes will be more expensive with inflation combined with decreasing and more expensive supplies. With the likely ending of Biden’s pro-environmental Inflation Reduction Act, needed supplies and benefits will decrease.
•  When there are greatly increased local needs due to increased massive storms, drought, fires, or rising water levels, there will likely be less federal support. Not only will key federal agencies see cuts, but federal emergency assistance programs will also see cuts. Political factors (targeting Blue States) may be an additional problem. With increased costs to basic supplies for upgrading our infrastructure – water, electrical and other, due to both tariffs and inflation, we will be less able as a city to prepare for respond to local climate-based problems. Local residents will increasingly face such costs on their own.  
• Cambridge is already facing sizable tax loses by the 30% empty offices and we are increasingly paying more in financial costs to pay our massive debt. In the near future, we will see a need for reducing or cutting city staff and programs. This will mean that housing needs will decrease.
• If the U.S. government choses to continue or even extend tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations, this will put serious strain on the national debt, which many feel is currently at unsustainable levels.
• The increasing national debt likely will result in further U.S. government cuts to social programs benefiting middle income residents, the near poor, and the very poor. Many of these individuals and family will be living in Cambridge in our AHO, Section 8 and other housing. Added financial support for these residents, with likely decreased amounts of available city funding, will be a serious challenge.
• Cambridge and the area likely will face the challenge of even more unhoused (we should remind ourselves of scenes during the Great Depression of the 1930s). This will take even more funding to address in an already more difficult financial situation for the city.

In summary, the city and area likely will be facing sizable turbulence in the years ahead as a result of changing national political dynamics. While some may benefit, many of the forces that have led to the current Cambridge vitality (including our universities and tech industries) will likely be greatly compromised. Not only will many current residents (and city workers) likely move elsewhere with employment opportunities (reducing critical housing need), but Cambridge will be facing sizable increased financial difficulty alongside a local population in greater financial need both for public financed housing and other resources.
 
As other city studies have noted, upzoning tends to result in the removal of minority residents and their replacement by wealthier white residents. The proposed upzoning will only exacerbate that problem. It is very likely that the proposed up-zoning will not only increase disparities between wealthy and poor, but also force out more of our minority groups. Outside investors and developers rarely place social need and accountability above financial gain, so there will be few if any who will seek to create housing with 10+ units. Most will build at most 9 units (and more likely fewer at shorter heights) which will enable them to benefit financially far more. This will add far more expensive luxury housing to our local housing corpus, including in the few places of the city that are large enough for them, tall Trump tower structures, as a badge of the very wealthy and their investor interests.